Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

[Read] ➲ Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers By John Kay – Hostingencolombia.co Much economic advice is bogus uantification warn two leading experts in this essential book Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manageMuch economic advice is bogus uantification warn two leading experts in this essential book Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertaintySome uncertainties are resolvable The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory Most situations in life however involve a deeper kind of uncertainty a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound In 2000 no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information reuired in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates the cost of living and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthlessThe limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge we should adopt business political and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative uncertainty can be embraced because it is the source of creativity excitement and profit.

Much economic advice is bogus uantification warn two leading experts in this essential book Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertaintySome uncertainties are resolvable The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory Most situations in life however involve a deeper kind of uncertainty a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound In 2000 no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information reuired in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates the cost of living and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthlessThe limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge we should adopt business political and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative uncertainty can be embraced because it is the source of creativity excitement and profit.

Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

radical mobile uncertainty: pdf decision making book beyond epub numbers ebok Radical Uncertainty: pdf Decision-Making Beyond pdf Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleMuch economic advice is bogus uantification warn two leading experts in this essential book Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertaintySome uncertainties are resolvable The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory Most situations in life however involve a deeper kind of uncertainty a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound In 2000 no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information reuired in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates the cost of living and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthlessThe limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge we should adopt business political and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative uncertainty can be embraced because it is the source of creativity excitement and profit.

6 thoughts on “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

  1. Ian S. Moss Ian S. Moss says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleThe point to be made radical uncertainty is made pedanticaly The resolution so far are stories some would call them scenarios an old theme The attack is on subjective probabilities I understand and agree but one cannot help but think that just maybe there is something there To sleep perchance to dream That is the rub I think the problem is that seemingly rational man and woman have appeal until exactly what that it is sows dought These authors have at least left us in that uandary Rational yes but without all the pieces Humanity struggles to find a logical way the path is not clear economics offers one perspective and an important one but like most if not all of them perspectives that is it is not the whole story


  2. Athan Athan says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleFor a hyper discursive one idea book this was actually rather goodHere’s the ideaEconomics would do well to turn its mathematical prowess away from the idea that economic agents are busy maximising something and must focus on “what’s going on here”And “what’s going on” is uite simple we all have some sort of dream the word the authors use is “narrative” As we gather information we assess how this new information influences our dream and adapt accordinglyThe EndThis is neither Mervyn King’s nor John Kay


  3. Kindle Customer Kindle Customer says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleUnexpected stuff happens That's the idea The actual book is unexpected stuff happens brag example of unexpected stuff happening humblebrag you know unexpected stuff happens repeated far far far too many times Unless you want an example of self satisfied old white men showing as only t


  4. Jim Souter Jim Souter says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleI read the book with interest I am an ex decision analyst and now scenario thinkerThe critiue of SEU theory is fair Their development of an alternative approach to making decisions the face of uncertainty about the future is less well specified A lot of material is included on the way people reason by narratives the use of small groups to exchange opinions and the use of T


  5. William Podmore William Podmore says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleJohn Kay is the author of many books including Other People’s Money and he is a fellow of St John’s College Oxford Mervyn King was governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013 and is professor of economics and law at New York University and school professor of economics at the London School of Economics He also wrote The End of Alchemy In this remarkable book they show that we can make good decisions even in an uncertain worldIf we control risk we can manage and even enjoy uncertainty Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge we need strategies robust to alternative futures and resilient to unexpected events aka the future As the authors write “the thoughtful wedding planner relies on a robust and resilient


  6. Gazzarian Gazzarian says:

    Kindle John Kay Ó Ó Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers radical mobile, uncertainty: pdf, decision making book, beyond epub, numbers ebok, Radical Uncertainty: pdf, Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond pdf, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers KindleI wish I could give this stars because its premise is spot on and the authors' expertise intellect and engaging writing style should euip them to deliver a clear and powerful messageBut they don't The first third or so is devoted to an extended review of probability theory; I suspect the probability is that most readers will already be uite familiar with the various coin tossing card playing second guessing greed vs loss aversion type of topics which have been repeated in so much of the literature And really the Cuban missile crisis AGAIN?? Please don't It all felt like padding to help make an impressively heavy tome on the bookshop shelfYou will already know the book's central tenets from the blurb and the other reviews You can't build a model around the behaviour


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